The Covid19 worsen the already declining world economy, this long last pandemic would make both the political leaders and individuals in most of the countries become more conservative. So I think there are some trends that would be shared over the world.
For the big picture, the conservative policy and the downfall of the domestic economy in most of the country would make them shift their more open and export-oriented economy model to a more conservative and domestic-oriented economy model as the international market would be shrinking from the coming few years. Besides the shrinking global market, the need to provide a stable environment would be the priority for most of the government, so trade protectionism
would regain its way at least for the coming 3 or 5 years. Government would put more effect in protecting the local business and enterprises so they could offer more jobs to the local market.
Besides trade protection, in order to stimulate the economy government investment will increase and the benchmark interest rate will decrease, which means there would be more money in the market and it would result in a mild inflation. This trend would cause the people who have fixed assets, especially reality, to get richer and make it harder for those who don’t.
So in short, for the big picture, the world after the Covid would be a more conservative and separated one. However I don’t think it is the ending of globalization, it would change the form of how globalization would be.
First of all, it’s impossible for many countries to depend on their own completely now, and it would be too expensive to change the industry right now from head to toe. The whole world is already heavily connected. Second there are still some rising markets especially in the Southeast Asia area, the cheap labor and the completing infrastructure already make the Southeast Asia area the new world factory, and they are going to be the very large market with great potential where all the international enterprises would want to get in. More importantly, I think what makes the world heavily connected is because we are culturally connected. We can watch the same movies and TV shows, play the same game and compete with each other, even if we shut down the broader it would stop this kind of globalization. Therefore I think in the short future, the international investment would not stop, but the investor would be more careful and take small steps and also work more closely with the locals.
Other than the big picture, I think the Covid also has a significant impact on everyone’s daily life. Covid have changed how people are working, shopping and entertaining. For many people, working from home is becoming a daily routine right now and there are more and more tools to help people to be productive at home. On the other side, more and more companies allow people to work remotely right now and I think in order to lower the operation cost, working from home and team work via. The Internet will be common in the future. Another trend will be on-line shopping and mobile payment. During the first months of Covid, the GMV of ebay and Amazon surged, as people are more familiar with advantage on-shopping to them, it would accelerate the e-commerce industry and related industries growth in countries such as the USA. Not only e-commerce enjoys rapid growth, most of the streaming and gaming companies are also having more growth ever and I think this trend will not stop.
After Covid I think individuals would also become more conservative. People would be more careful and cautious when they might need to spend large amounts of money and people would spend less on things such as cars. But they would be happy to spend a little money from now and then in entertainment to help them get over the hardship in life. Also people would spend more in taking care of their health and pay more attention to it, which would benefit related
industries. For most people, they would spend less in traveling for both the safety and economic reasons.